Bluejay Stats Breakdown

At various points throughout the season, I'll crunch the numbers and take a look at where the Jays stand using advanced metrics. Many of these come courtesy of statistician Ken Pomeroy's indispensable kenpom.com.

The Last Game

How special was Creighton's 85-83 victory at San Diego State? According to Pomeroy's forecast, the Aztecs entered with a 58.7% chance to win the game. You know the Jays fell behind 31-14, but you may not know that their chances of winning at that point were only 10%! It's just one of the many ways to put this special performance into perspective -- it's not easy to come back to win on the road, certainly not against a good team, and unheard of in a place as loud as Viejas Arena. Props to the team once again for refusing to succumb to the odds.

The Next Game

Pomeroy's model gives Creighton a 71% chance of beating the rival Nebraska Cornhuskers at the Clink on Sunday. This is a significant advantage in the world of probabilities, and I believe it's clear that the Jays are the more talented team, let alone the cohesive one. However, Nebraska will be determined to play hard, coming off two heartbreaking losses, most recently to a hapless Wake Forest team that hadn't won on the road in over a calendar year. Creighton, meanwhile, will find it tough to duplicate the emotion of Wednesday's thriller, even against an in-state rival.

A key factor in this game will be tempo. The Huskers like to slow things down, grind out buckets in the half-court, and clamp down on defense. The Jays are a more flexible team, but they'd rather get out in transition as often as they can. Pomeroy expects the game to proceed at Nebraska's favored pace, but if Creighton can ratchet up the intensity, the odds tilt even further in their favor. I wouldn't be shocked to see some pressing defenses from Coach McDermott in an effort to speed the Huskers up and get the ball out of playmaker Bo Spencer's hands.

The Offense

We've all seen how prolific the Jays can be at scoring. Their raw offensive efficiency sits at 124.4 points per 100 possessions -- third in the entire country! Taking opponents into account puts the Jays at 114.6, still an impressive 12th nationally and trailing only such renowned offensive teams as Ohio State, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, and North Carolina. Interestingly, upcoming opponent Northwestern checks in one spot ahead of Creighton, despite playing at a Nebraska-slow tempo! However, it's likely that the tempo numbers for the Wildcats are skewed by some of the cupcakes they've played -- the Cats' wins over top 100 teams LSU and Georgia Tech were played faster than average. Still, it looks like we can expect a shootout when these two teams hook up. Like the Jays, Northwestern rarely turns the ball over. But I'm getting ahead of myself...

Speaking of turnovers, ball control has been an understated key to the Jays' success this year. We've talked about the amazing assist-to-field goal ratio (currently 7th in the nation), but just as important are the passes that don't lead to scores. Creighton turns the ball over only 16.8% of the time, good for 29th nationally and almost 5% below average. This means over the course of a standard 70-possession game, the Jays are getting three extra chances to score compared to the average opponent. And when you've got the country's best effective field-goal percentage at 61.6, those additional looks can make a huge difference in a close game, as we've already seen (only one turnover in the second half at San Diego State). Even the team's offensive rebounding, a longtime Creighton bugaboo, has been above average thanks to the presence of Greg Echenique and the furious activity of Doug McDermott.

But there's one nit to pick with the Jays' offense, and it's a really big one: free-throw shooting. The Jays don't get to the line a lot, and when they do, they haven't been converting. Their 63.8% make rate is dangerously low, a full 4% below average. Not only that, two of the biggest culprits are also the two players that can expect to see the most trips to the stripe: point guard Antoine Young (62.1%) and center Echenique (34.8%!). Indeed, the pair has combined to take an astounding 41% of the team's free throws. Young is a senior who has worked hard on his stroke, and I expect him to rebound from a rough shooting start. Echenique is a bit more of a concern, especially if teams decide to dust off the old Hack-a-Greg routine -- and let's be honest, at this point, why wouldn't they? Amazingly, the Jays' opponents have been even worse at the line (62.3%), a number we can expect will regress to the mean as the season goes on. What does that portend? Creighton will be working at a massive free-throw disadvantage if things continue to play out this way, and we know this is crucial to winning in March.

The Defense

Here's where Coach Greg McDermott has traditionally made his bones, and where we expected the biggest improvements this season. Sure enough, while there have been a few bumps, the Jays' defense does look to be significantly better than in 2010-11. Let's start with causing turnovers, where Creighton was just one spot above dead last a year ago. They're still below average, but the improvement here shows that McDermott's team is doing a better job of making opponents work to run their offense.

While the team's overall defensive efficiency is almost precisely average, the individual defensive numbers paint a better picture. For instance, Creighton has ranked very well in preventing offensive rebounds and keeping opponents off the free-throw line, both of which are among the more difficult defensive skills to master. The improvement on the boards is especially encouraging -- Echenique's presence in the paint has rectified a long-time thorn in the Jays' side, and helped fans (and surely the coaches) feel so much more at ease when the ball's on the rim.

Statistical Outlook

Despite their impressive 6-0 start, the Jays sit just 50th in Pomeroy's comprehensive outlook. This is much lower than the human polls, and even many other computer models, have the Jays -- Massey's aggregate rankings have CU in 23rd. This is certainly due to the underwhelming starts from big-name opponents UAB and Iowa, who were supposed to provide ballast for the Jays' schedule strength but instead have helped drag it down into the country's 40 easiest slates.

The good news is that this will change quickly, with 6 of Creighton's next 7 opponents ranked in Pomeroy's top 100. Of course, the flip side is that the Jays' goose egg in the loss column will be under serious threat. While I've heard many fans compare this team to the 2003 Jays in Kyle Korver's final season and toss out that magical 30-win total, Pomeroy's statistical projections are vastly more modest about the team's prospects. According to the model, there is a greater than 50% that Creighton will finish somewhere between 20 and 23 wins this year -- a great season, but not what the Jays and their fans are looking for. However, after only 6 games, the models are definitely susceptible to large swings, and a strong finish to the non-conference schedule against higher-quality teams will cause these probabilities to rocket skyward.

Of note is how the statistical outlook squares with Omaha World-Herald beat writer Steve Pivovar's prediction of an 8-3 non-conference record. While Piv is often ragged for his realist takes, he's been around long enough to know that in college ball, a team can look unbeatable one week and inept the next. Some fans don't hesitate to state their expectations that Creighton will enter the Valley schedule undefeated, but Pomeroy's projections align with Piv's take, giving the Jays only an 8% chance of making it to 11-0.

Certainly, the projected record of 21-8 (12-6) does seem conservative if you apply the "eye test" to Creighton's victories thus far. But while the numbers and the play on the court both look great, it's important to emphasize that the Jays' biggest tests are yet to come, and it's far too early to rest on their laurels. I believe that the strong leadership of Coach McDermott, his son, senior point guard Antoine Young, and the indispensable Grant Gibbs can prevent that from happening. As Pat Marshall noted following Wednesday's euphoric victory, this has the look of a special team, and while a 30-win season may be an ambitious goal, I'm absolutely not ruling it out.